Did British planners expect Japan to win, lose, or draw the Russo-Japanese War?
Short answerThey expected Japan to win at sea but probably draw or lose on land, while Russian logistics kept its larger army from being fully decisive.
NotesBritish planners expected Japan to win at sea but draw or lose on land, producing an overall draw. Russia's larger army could matter only if enough troops and supplies reached the Far East. The railway of the war years lacked the reach and capacity of its later development, so that logistical limit cannot be judged from a later map. A hypothetical Japanese shift to fortified defensive positions, heavy artillery, and attacks on the railway would have made reinforcement harder still. Those proposed measures explain why simply adding Russian manpower does not settle a counterfactual continuation of the war.