Who would build a modern heavy cruiser first?

Is Russia or China more likely to build a modern heavy cruiser?

Either could move first, and the other would probably answer quickly with a large ship called simply a cruiser.

The panel does not select a definite first mover between Russia and China. It expects either navy's decision to prompt the other to produce or announce an equivalent. The resulting ship would probably be described simply as a cruiser rather than reviving the light-versus-heavy labels. At more than roughly 20,000 tons, role and political signaling would matter more than the historical treaty-era category.