Q&A · 3:17:37-3:19:01

Could Russia rebuild enough to contest Turkey in the Black Sea?

A rebuilt Russian fleet could contest some Turkish operations even if it remained too weak for an equal overall match.

Question

Can the Russian Navy rebuild enough to contest Turkey in the Black Sea?

Short answer

It may not achieve equality, but it can still build enough strength to contest particular operations and prevent Turkey from acting without opposition.

Notes

Contesting another navy does not require equality in an overall fleet comparison. Russia is therefore judged capable of rebuilding a force that can oppose Turkey in some circumstances, even if it cannot match Turkish strength. The comparison with Soviet naval history stresses that local weakness did not automatically remove a fleet's wider standing or ability to contest operations. Periods of Russian naval strength in the age of sail provide another example of high standing alongside persistent institutional problems.