The argument is that Russian logistical weakness and the timing of Hornby's authorization closed an unusually favorable opportunity to seize the Straits. Had Russian heavy weapons reached the decisive approaches first, forcing the passage would have become much harder for Britain. Further Russian expansion could then have drawn Austria-Hungary, Germany, France, and the Ottoman Empire into a broader struggle or hastened an Ottoman collapse whose effects reached far beyond the immediate theater. The passage defines great-power policy as conflict and risk management in a multipolar system, where territorial gains can impose economic and strategic costs on states that are not the first belligerents.
Notable Point · 1:00:24-1:02:57
The Straits crisis could have widened across Europe
A Russian seizure of the Straits threatened more than Constantinople because it could alter the European balance of power and accelerate a wider Ottoman collapse.