US policy remains a domestic political problem as well as a strategic one. Roosevelt's poor 1938 midterm result constrains him, but the 1940 election remains distant and the later opposition coalition has not yet fully solidified. Charles Lindbergh's hostility to European intervention does not automatically translate into opposition to war with Japan, which complicates the isolationist landscape. A Japanese war followed by what looks like a German-Italian attack on Britain and France from behind could weaken some neutrality arguments without guaranteeing American belligerence. Heavy Allied industrial orders would also benefit workers and businesses, giving the administration room to favour the Allies materially even before Congress accepts a declaration of war.
Notable Point · 34:50-39:23
Roosevelt's political room for material aid
A Japanese war and later German-Italian intervention could reshape Roosevelt's domestic incentives without guaranteeing US belligerence.