What if an American submarine commander attacked the Japanese carriers without authorization shortly before Pearl Harbor?
Short answerPearl Harbor could be spared, and the crew might be rewarded despite the unauthorized attack; Japanese offensives elsewhere would still lead to war.
NotesA submarine would first need working torpedoes, with an older type suggested in view of the defects in newer American weapons. If its unauthorized attack sank the Japanese carriers, Pearl Harbor could escape the historical strike. Japanese attacks elsewhere would still bring the countries into war under the scenario. The successful commander and crew might receive medals and promotion alongside a warning never to act that way again. The imagined outcome is therefore a major opening advantage for the United States despite the initial diplomatic incident.