Numbers may be internally consistent, but analysts still decide whether an input should count as two, 2.1, or 1.5. Insurance-style models rest on averages of ordinary behaviour, whereas war planning must consider decisions that states normally avoid. Choosing war brings immediate harm, yet countries can also be pulled into conflict without choosing to fight. Quantitative discipline therefore cannot replace judgment about unusual decisions or wars imposed on a state.
Notable Point · 1:19:58-1:22:09
War planning must account for abnormal decisions
Quantitative models depend on human inputs and averages, while war often begins through rare, irrational, or imposed choices.