Risk matrices can hide political judgment

Defence-by-matrix promises to turn a chosen tolerance for risk into a list of forces to buy. People still assign the probabilities, capability values, and trade-offs, while jobs and constituency politics can shape those choices. Churchill's interwar position on Japan illustrates contradictory judgment: he argued that the British Empire was too strong for Japan to attack but also too weak to risk war, especially in debates over Singapore. A chart can make these choices look settled before their assumptions receive enough scrutiny. The choice of inputs, their assessment, and their application can all remain behind closed doors. The objection is that simplifying the decision in this way can suppress the discussion needed to expose a flawed compromise.