Imagine Hood's shell reaching Bismarck's magazine instead of the historical German hit destroying Hood. That reversal prevents the known result from disguising how contingent the action was. A decision that appears brilliant after success may look reckless when the same probabilities favour the other side. The method also applies to policy: before establishing a wartime practice, consider whether accepting the opponent's use of the same precedent would be tolerable. Reversing actors and outcomes is therefore a way to test both historical judgment and proposed rules without relying on hindsight alone.
Notable Point · 3:47:40-3:48:33
Reverse the outcome before declaring the lesson
A historical method reverses the lucky hit at Denmark Strait and asks whether the same conduct looks wise when the opponent benefits.