Johnston would probably have recognized the danger of remaining near the river after failing to destroy Grant's army. Beauregard instead expected to finish the battle the next morning, despite reports of Union reinforcement and Nathan Bedford Forrest's warning that the Confederates would be beaten. A rough comparison sets Union losses near 13,000, mostly on the first day, against roughly 20,800 fresh men from Lew Wallace and Buell. Confederate estimates for the next morning ranged from about 20,000 to 28,000 effectives, with the lower figure excluding troops no longer organized or willing to fight. That imbalance turned the next day into a Union counterattack rather than a final Confederate success.
Notable Point · 2:05:05-2:09:50
Why the first-day withdrawal becomes Union victory
Beauregard claimed victory after the first day, but Grant's river connection brought in fresh divisions while Confederate combat power collapsed.