What would follow if an unusually effective Regia Marina removed British power from the Mediterranean in early 1941?
Short answerAggression alone would not suffice; Italian naval dominance also required material support, institutional change, capable senior command, and major Royal Navy failure.
NotesMore aggressive Italian admirals would still need infrastructure and a force structure capable of supporting Mediterranean dominance. The Regia Marina is judged the strongest and most balanced Axis navy before Japan entered the war, while also lacking the resources needed for the proposed transformation. Some capable leaders were already present. For Italy to eliminate effective British naval opposition, the counterfactual would also require major failures by commanders such as Cunningham and Somerville. Under those combined assumptions the North African campaign as fought historically would no longer follow. A change of fighting spirit alone is judged insufficient to produce them.