A naval screen can stop almost every attack while leaving enough risk to divert commercial shipping. Even a small residual chance of a strike can raise war-risk insurance and make the longer route around Africa preferable. Mercogliano cites an estimate of about $6 billion in lost Suez Canal tolls. He suggests that Egyptian intervention could provoke attacks on the canal itself, leaving Cairo to weigh reduced toll income against the possibility of a complete interruption.
Notable Point · 33:13-35:15
Residual risk can close a sea lane without sinking most ships
Even highly effective missile defence may leave enough risk to raise insurance costs, divert shipping, and reduce Egypt's Suez Canal revenue.