Q&A · 2:19:21-2:19:46

The limits of defense against missile and drone attacks

The December 2023 assessment expects repeated missile and drone attacks eventually to penetrate a purely defensive response.

Question

What happens if navies only defend against repeated missile and drone attacks in the Red Sea without striking the attackers?

Short answer

The December 2023 prediction is that some attacks would get through, causing damage and pressure for offensive action.

Notes

In the December 2023 discussion, continued Houthi and Iranian missile and drone attacks are expected eventually to get through naval defences. Serious damage would then bring questions about why action against the sources of the attacks had been delayed. The forecast is that offensive action would become unavoidable. Its timing is therefore treated as the principal strategic choice.