Q&A · 2:35:30-2:37:40

Railguns show the gap between invention and fielding

A working railgun concept from 1917 shows why predicting whether a defence technology will arrive in ten years or a century is harder than predicting that it will eventually work.

Question

Which future defence technologies are most likely to become operational?

Short answer

Many may eventually work, but their fielding dates are highly uncertain; railguns have had working concepts since 1917 without becoming routine weapons.

Notes

Many familiar future-weapon concepts may eventually enter service. The difficult question is whether that happens in a decade or a century. A French inventor is credited here with producing a working railgun model in 1917, long before the weapon became a modern procurement headline. The early model illustrates how a feasible principle can precede operational service by more than a century.