Q&A · 1:16:07-1:16:39

Were attacks on HX convoys evenly distributed?

The full-war total conceals years of higher danger, so the aggregate attack rate should not be treated as a constant probability for every sailing.

Question

Were attacks on HX convoys concentrated in particular years rather than spread evenly across the war?

Short answer

Yes. Risk was higher in some years, so the 38-of-377 aggregate should not be read as a constant probability for every convoy.

Notes

The full-war HX totals combine very different phases of the Atlantic campaign. The probability of attack was higher in some years even though the route's aggregate record remained strong. Critical convoys also received deliberate protection, which contributed to their apparent good fortune. The 38 attacked sailings out of 377 therefore measure the system's overall result rather than a uniform one-in-ten risk on every date.