Russian attrition in an April 2022 assessment

Did the war in Ukraine appear to pose an existential threat to Putin on 28 April 2022?

Not at that point, although losing Crimea could change the calculation while repeated Russian offensives risked exhausting forces before Ukrainian counterattacks.

This assessment was made on 28 April 2022 and should not be read as a current status report. The war did not yet appear to be an existential threat to Putin, although loss of Crimea could have changed that calculation. Repeated Russian offensives could expend units against Ukrainian defenses. In that model, Ukraine could wait for the attacking force to weaken and then counterattack, making territorial gains during an offensive a poor measure of whether Russia was improving its strategic position.