Q&A: Could turning the Pacific squadrons back have changed the regime?

If the second and third Pacific squadrons had not gone to Tsushima, could the Tsar have survived?

Probably, but keeping the fleet would have avoided a devastating political and symbolic loss and reduced pressure for reform.

The Tsar probably would have survived in either case because no immediate replacement was waiting to take power. Retaining the ships would still have prevented an exceptionally visible national disaster. Port Arthur's fall could be blamed partly on distance, logistics, and the army, while Tsushima destroyed a heavily publicized relief force in one unmistakable catastrophe. Avoiding that loss would likely have reduced pressure for reform without repairing Russia's deeper political and military weaknesses.