Could Germany have won in Europe by avoiding the invasion of the Soviet Union?
Short answerNo. Britain would keep fighting with more resources available, while Germany's economy still lacked the depth for a prolonged war and US entry remained decisive.
NotesBritain is not expected to leave the war simply because the eastern front remains quiet. Supplies historically sent to the Soviet Union could instead strengthen Britain and the Far East, while trade continued to support the British war economy. Germany, by contrast, needed access to eastern resources because its own economic position was deteriorating. Once Japan and then Germany brought the United States into the conflict, the long-term balance would become still more unfavourable.