Q&A: why Germany misread Britain in 1914

Why did Germany think Britain might stay out of the First World War even if Belgium was violated?

Germany overread Britain's tensions with Russia and France and underread its longstanding strategic interest in keeping Antwerp from a dominant continental power.

German leaders could see the Anglo-German naval race fading and believed British relations with Russia and France were fragile. That made neutrality appear plausible from a narrow reading of recent diplomacy. They missed the longer strategic concern that no dominant power should control Antwerp and the approaches opposite Britain. The Royal Navy's repeated attention to French and Low Countries ports made Belgian neutrality part of a durable balance-of-power policy, rather than a disposable sentiment.