Was it reasonable for the Germans to assume Campbeltown had only rammed the dock gate rather than carrying a delayed bomb?
Short answerNo; the low-probability but catastrophic alternative demanded verification before the wreck was treated as safe.
NotesThe visible ramming damage and commando attacks on pumping machinery offered a plausible explanation for the raid, but they did not prove that Campbeltown was safe. Officers could begin with that assumption, but they still needed to verify it. Even a ten-percent chance of a concealed weapon carried consequences too catastrophic to dismiss. The failure is therefore a warning against allowing one reasonable explanation to harden into certainty before the dangerous alternative has been checked.