Why Russia avoided formally declaring war in May 2022

What would change if Russia formally declared war on Ukraine?

A declaration would broaden the conflict's political and legal consequences and complicate Russia's international position, so a rhetorical victory claim seemed more likely in May 2022.

The label special operation is described as politically useful because it permits the Russian government to present the conflict as limited in scope. A formal declaration of war would remove that ambiguity and create additional problems at the United Nations, the Security Council, and other international bodies. A declaration is therefore judged unlikely, while a rhetorical declaration of victory appears more plausible. The George W. Bush carrier speech is invoked as a warning that political claims of victory need not match conditions on the ground, making this explicitly a May 2022 assessment rather than a prediction stated with certainty.