What if the Pacific Fleet had remained at San Diego?

If the Pacific Fleet had stayed in San Diego, would Japan have raided it there?

Japan might have attempted a smaller raid, but it could not realistically send the six-carrier force that far without discovery and severe logistical strain.

Japan might have sustained a much smaller two-carrier raid against San Diego, but distance and discovery made a Kido Butai-scale attack impractical. Basing a British Far Eastern force at Ceylon would create a similar depth inside the Indian Ocean and make a surprise Japanese carrier strike much harder. The United States had moved the fleet forward without moving equivalent infrastructure, leaving it exposed at Pearl Harbor while much of its support remained on the mainland. Admiral Richardson repeatedly objected to that unsupported deployment before Kimmel inherited it. American confidence that no opponent would dare strike national territory made the exposed position still more dangerous.