Could four German battleships exploit December 1941?

What about a four-battleship German sortie in December 1941 after the historical losses of Ark Royal and Barham?

The premise is unstable because cancelling Rheinübung could keep Ark Royal alive and alter Force Z, so Britain's December fleet cannot be assumed to match history.

A December 1941 four-ship German sortie cannot simply inherit every historical British loss. Without Rheinübung, Ark Royal's subsequent movements may change enough that she is not torpedoed where she was historically. She might instead accompany Force Z, which could also alter the loss of Prince of Wales and Repulse. Barham may still be lost, but the counterfactual must follow those branching deployments before declaring the Royal Navy uniquely vulnerable.