A public warning removes Pearl Harbor's essential surprise

Pearl Harbor depended on the defenders remaining unsuspecting and at low readiness. In this interpretation, replacing Admiral James O. Richardson and withholding intelligence from Kimmel weakened American readiness through short-term political decisions. The administration curtailed information that Richardson had used to challenge its policy, leaving his successor less prepared. Political self-interest explains the restrictions without assuming a deliberate plot to invite attack. A public announcement that the carriers had been found would probably make Nagumo or Yamamoto order withdrawal. If Japan continued, changes of speed and unpredictable night manoeuvres might hinder American tracking, but the returning Japanese strike could still lead American aircraft back to the carriers. The Pacific Fleet would have time to leave the harbor, forcing the Japanese to hunt for ships that were themselves looking for the attackers.