Notable Point · 5:25-7:38

Procurement should answer manageable threats, not impossible absolutes

The Six-Six Fleet illustrates how planners can distinguish plausible dangers worth managing from extreme scenarios no practical force could survive.

Notes

The Six-Six Fleet linked conflict management to procurement, deterrence, and analysis of likely opponents. Planners must separate existential but unmanageable possibilities from plausible threats that a state can sensibly prepare to defeat. A hypothetical attack by 2,000 cruise missiles reduces the demand for absolute survivability to an absurdity because no ship or ordinary task group could withstand it. That theoretical vulnerability is no reason to abandon warships or defence planning. The useful question is whether the force can handle the missions and attack scales it is actually likely to face.