The uncertain value of prewar anti-aircraft estimates

One explanation for the predicted raid losses is excessive prewar confidence in anti-aircraft fire. Planners could estimate their own weapons' effectiveness and assume the enemy would perform similarly. Trials often used older remotely controlled aircraft flying straight and level, which represented only part of the combat problem. More realistic live-fire testing risked destroying expensive modern aircraft and, with a manned target, its crew. In a recalled Queen Bee trial, the target survived director-controlled fire before a turret using local control destroyed it by observing and correcting successive shots. Crediting the eventual hit to the director would have concealed why the trial had initially failed.