Q&A · 5:02:26-5:05:26

Preventing the war by changing Cold War incentives

The closing exchange debates whether changing US support for South American military governments could alter the conditions leading to the Falklands War.

Question

Could the Falklands War have been prevented by changing the Cold War politics that supported Argentina's military government?

Short answer

The panel suggests that changed US support might alter the scenario, while noting that the policies predated Kissinger and that intervention would require additional knowledge and access.

Notes

The panel connects its prevention scenario to US support for military governments in South America and debates Henry Kissinger's role. An initial assassination counterfactual meets objections about the extra historical knowledge and authorization it would require. Another qualification is that the relevant American policies predated Kissinger, although participants argue that he helped direct important actions in the 1970s. Persuading him is then proposed as an alternative within the time-travel scenario. These suggestions depend on access to policymakers and information beyond merely knowing that a war will occur in 1982. The exchange offers competing counterfactual arguments rather than establishing that changing one official would prevent the junta's rise or the war.