Force Z and the deterrent value of uncertainty

Before Force Z arrived, Japanese planners faced uncertainty about the force Britain might send. Once two capital ships were committed, the threat became more definite and easier to plan against. Existing British cruisers had already established a presence and made reinforcement credible. An alternative is considered in which the capital ships waited on the African side of the Indian Ocean for a carrier. That could have preserved uncertainty and produced a stronger force, at the price of a slower response to landings. It remains a counterfactual comparison of visible and implied presence.