Uncertain political responses complicate invasion planning

A Taiwanese vote on independence or a national flag is one proposed trigger for a crisis. The deterrence theory considered here holds that predictable leaders let an aggressor estimate how far it can push, while an unpredictable response makes that calculation harder. It depends on the aggressor's reading of political personalities, which makes long-range forecasts uncertain. An accidental attack on a Korean merchant ship, followed by Japanese involvement, illustrates another possible route to escalation. Even if outside governments initially tolerated operations against Taiwan, attacks affecting their own interests could change their responses.