A changed shipbuilding decision cannot float free of diplomacy, technology, and other naval programs. The concentration of cancelled or suspended carriers, cruisers, battleships, and battlecruisers around the Washington Naval Treaty makes the period a particularly rich branching point. Plausibility comes from changing one defensible decision while preserving the surrounding pressures that real navies faced. The result should explain consequences rather than use the divergence as permission for an unrestricted flight of fancy. This method keeps the scenario imaginative while requiring it to behave like history.
Notable Point · 3:41-4:26
Keeping naval alternate history close to real constraints
A convincing counterfactual should remain close to real history and account for the many forces shaping warship development.