Russia's invasion plan is described as treating the Ukrainian army as though it had not changed since 2014, despite eight years of fighting and reform. The comparison is Wilhelm II's belief that Britain would remain outside the First World War, a judgment reinforced by poor British signaling and the absence of visible Royal Navy mobilization. Invading Belgium promised a rapid victory but instead helped bring Britain into the conflict. The resulting blockade steadily damaged the German economy. Both cases show how a plan can fail when it ignores an adversary's development or the likely reaction of coalition partners.
Notable Point · 3:25:34-3:26:58
Plans fail when they assume the enemy has not changed
A comparison between Russian assumptions about Ukraine and Germany's 1914 decision-making shows how outdated enemy assessments can transform the war a plan was meant to win.