Confidence that peace would endure shaped Dutch decisions in the 1920s and 1930s. The problem may have been the certainty with which people assumed they knew the future. Planners could not know enough to buy only the minimum force required by their predictions. Reserve capacity and a spread of capabilities give a navy options if threats develop differently from those forecasts. Concentrating everything on one expected future leaves fewer alternatives when conditions change.
Notable Point · 29:45-30:30
Planning slack for an uncertain future
Dutch interwar planning illustrates why reserve capacity and varied capabilities matter when forecasts about peace and future threats prove wrong.