A deliberate campaign could normalize ever larger exercises around Taiwan until the actual assault resembled another drill. The proposed sequence makes exercises longer and brings forces closer, encouraging observers to dismiss preparations as routine. A different route begins with political change inside China, Taiwan, or elsewhere that creates a perceived need for immediate action. The deliberate buildup fits the personal estimate of a greater risk in the 2030s, since new ships and formations still need time to enter service and operate together.
Chapter · 39:51-41:48
Two invasion paths: exercise cover or political crisis
The scenario branches between a long-prepared assault concealed by expanding exercises and a rushed operation triggered by political change.