Plan Z imagined battleships and carriers supporting Panzerschiffe and light cruisers against British trade while submarines obstructed a decisive response. That coordination was implausible, and the opposing forces would have changed greatly during the nine years after 1939. Britain might field Lion-class battleships, Vanguard, later carriers, large escort forces, and Commonwealth reservists rather than the fleet Germany had measured in the 1930s. German leadership would also change, just as political intrigue weakened Italian command and Stalin's purges removed capable Soviet officers. The Night of the Long Knives showed that Hitler had already eliminated allies he perceived as threats, making Raeder's or Dönitz's continued position in 1948 uncertain. The counterfactual exposes a neglected planning variable: long construction programmes must account for institutional and command change as well as future hull numbers.
Notable Point · 1:03:11-1:09:20
The enemy fleet and German command Plan Z would meet in 1948
A 1948 Plan Z battle would involve a newer Royal Navy and a German command altered by dictatorship, purges, rivalries, and almost a decade of leadership turnover.