What if the United States used the Philippines rather than Pearl Harbor as its prewar forward base?
Short answerThe base could be captured with damaged ships beyond American salvage, but a concentrated and better-warned fleet offers a competing case for a stronger opening defence.
NotesA fleet based in the Philippines risks losing both damaged ships and the harbour needed to salvage them if Japan captures the base. Concentrating investment at Subic Bay could also leave Pearl Harbor as little more than a fuelling station, and one estimate allows six months to a year to make it a useful replacement. The opposing case is that a major fleet presence would change the opening attack: warnings, reconnaissance aircraft, air defences, and naval command authority would all be concentrated in the Philippines. A larger force could constrain MacArthur's freedom to remain unprepared, and a Marine division is suggested as another possible reinforcement. Carrier locations remain uncertain because the altered deployment could change their ferrying and training duties. Even the claimed language problems within Philippine forces are disputed, with disagreement over how widely Spanish reached ordinary recruits. The outcome therefore depends on how thoroughly the basing decision changes American preparation and the Japanese attack.