The Philippines as a deliberate relief trap

The Philippines offered an obvious combined Army-Navy target, but a complete Japanese victory would remove the reason for a relief expedition. The counterfactual therefore requires deliberately leaving American forces holding out around Manila, creating political pressure for the fleet to cross the Pacific. Japanese commanders would have to conceal that restraint while maintaining a convincing siege and enough danger to sustain public demands for relief. This exposes a central problem in the strategy: the opening blow had to be damaging enough to provoke anger but not so damaging that the Americans could not respond immediately.