A loose blockade keeps the main fleet over the horizon while an inshore squadron watches the port and relays movement. A phantom blockade copies that signaling pattern when no battle fleet is present, a method associated with Admiral Duncan during fleet mutiny. The deception can also be reversed by having the observers signal only when the enemy moves. Officers who already think the blockade is a bluff may read those signals as confirmation and sortie into the hidden fleet. Age-of-sail communications could therefore turn uncertainty and confirmation bias into operational weapons.
Notable Point · 5:38-7:38
Phantom blockades exploit signaling and confirmation bias
An inshore squadron can imitate a fleet over the horizon, or conceal a real one, by controlling when it signals and encouraging the enemy to confirm the wrong assumption.