Post-Cold War procurement rested for years on two unusually optimistic assumptions. The first held that peer conflict was remote and that major powers would fight only wars they chose to enter. The second claimed that governments had mastered the economic cycle and could plan around steadily improving finances. Kosovo, the Gulf conflicts, 9/11, and numerous smaller wars did not immediately dislodge this outlook. The economy resembles the sea in one respect: it can support those who respect its limits, but it cannot be commanded into permanent calm. A resilient force plan must survive security and fiscal shocks instead of depending on reassuring political forecasts.
Notable Point · 38:01-41:37
Procurement risk after the Cold War
Post-Cold War procurement rested on assumptions about remote peer conflict, optional wars, and continuing economic growth that are challenged here.