What happens if the United States receives reliable warning before the attack on Pearl Harbor?
Short answerWith a few days of reliable warning, the United States could prepare its defenders and attempt a carrier ambush while Japanese strike aircraft were away.
NotesThe counterfactual combines a greatly strengthened Japanese battleship fleet with reliable American warning a few days before Pearl Harbor. Warning changes the immediate problem by allowing ships to disperse, aircraft to take off, and defenders to reach fighting readiness. Even ships remaining in harbour could close up and prepare for air attack. US carriers could attempt a counterstrike timed after the Japanese force launches its second wave, when both strike waves are away. The assessment therefore puts warning and carrier positioning ahead of the hypothetical increase in Japanese battleship strength. This is a proposed outcome under the scenario's assumptions.