A third strike would have used aircraft returning from the first wave together with spare aircraft. The missing American carriers gave Nagumo a reason to retain that force for a possible counterattack. Launching it against Pearl Harbor could leave him with fewer aircraft immediately available to meet the carriers at sea. Had the carriers been in harbour, a third strike would have followed in this assessment. It would probably have concentrated on cruisers and infrastructure because the first two waves had consumed much of the torpedo supply. Available weapons and assessment of the earlier attacks would shape the next target list.
Notable Point · 50:08-1:14:35
Why missing American carriers ruled against a third strike
Returned and spare aircraft could form another strike, but their value against the missing American carriers supported Nagumo's decision to retain them.