An intelligence organization needs to test assumptions about what an opponent can and will do. An operations staff can instead become focused on finding information that fits an expected answer. Turner's control over intelligence is criticized on those grounds: an assumption that Japan would not attack Pearl Harbor could outweigh information that left it a possible target. In this interpretation, restricting Kimmel's access to warnings was part of a wider failure in Washington. The criticism also extends to political authorities that received assessments without correcting the situation. Preserving the ability to ask unwelcome questions is therefore an institutional requirement for useful warning.
Notable Point · 1:35:54-1:38:30
When operational assumptions control intelligence assessment
Operational expectations can distort intelligence when the same leadership controls both the question and the accepted answer.