Would a third Japanese strike against Pearl Harbor's oil facilities win the Pacific War?
Short answerThe estimate is a delay of roughly two or three months, without a Japanese victory following from that delay alone.
NotesDestroying the oil facilities would force American ships to refuel farther away while support at Pearl Harbor was restored. The estimate puts the disruption at roughly two or three months. There is also a problem for Japanese strategy: the desired attritional campaign depends on the American fleet advancing across the Pacific. Leaving it able to pursue can therefore serve that plan, even though the fuel is a valuable target.