What changes if Japan attacks Pearl Harbor on 14 December with the American carriers in port?
Short answerUnder the stipulated concentration in port, carrier losses would disrupt early raids and the historical Coral Sea and Midway operations, leaving Hornet, possibly Saratoga, and scarce British assistance to cover the gap.
NotesThe question stipulates an attack on 14 December with American carriers in Pearl Harbor, even though a participant questions whether they would normally have gone back to sea. Under that assumption, the carriers would invite additional waves because Japan would know where they were. The loss or severe damage of Yorktown, Lexington, and Enterprise would disrupt early raids and prevent Coral Sea and Midway from unfolding as they did historically. Hornet and possibly Saratoga would have to hold the line, but Clarke explicitly qualifies his memory of Saratoga's location on that date. Earlier British carrier assistance is suggested, with availability itself a constraint. Wasp is considered acceptable for the Pacific and Ranger unsuitable, while Independence-class light carriers could receive greater priority.