Japan's quality strategy adapted risk-fleet theory: a few individually superior ships were meant to deter war even though they could not match an opponent's numbers. Pearl Harbor then opened the attrition strategy that Shokaku and Zuikaku had been designed to support. Japan hoped an early blow would provoke an emotional American advance across the Pacific, exposing a stretched fleet to repeated attacks before a decisive battle near Japan. The strike did too much damage for an immediate reckless response but too little to stop the United States rebuilding. That mismatch left Japan facing the long industrial war its doctrine and carrier force were least able to sustain.
Notable Point · 44:28-47:56
Risk-fleet deterrence and the Pearl Harbor attrition gamble
Japan adapted risk-fleet theory to a few superior ships, then opened an attrition plan at Pearl Harbor that failed to provoke the expected American response.