Alexander Farnese, Duke of Parma, proposed landing roughly 30,000 troops and expected English Catholics to add another 30,000. His scheme also depended on secrecy, secure positions in the Netherlands, and keeping France from interfering. Spanish intervention was unlikely to be popular, and the invaders lacked a credible Catholic claimant around whom rebellion could coalesce, especially after Mary Stuart's political failures and death. Without that local political base, Spain would have to use its invasion army both to defeat organized forces and to control hostile territory, tasks that pulled the force in opposite directions.
Chapter · 39:31-46:19
Parma's invasion assumptions and the hoped-for Catholic rising
The invasion concept depended on secrecy, security in the Netherlands, French neutrality, and an English Catholic uprising whose scale appears implausible.