If Panama lay inside a British sphere of influence, would Britain keep the canal or give it to Panama?
Short answerBritain would probably transfer formal control to Panama while British companies retained an influential ownership position, much as at Suez.
NotesThe counterfactual separates legal sovereignty from economic control. Britain would probably hand the Panama Canal to Panama rather than keep it as an openly British possession. The likely arrangement resembles the Suez Canal, which was formally Egyptian while British commercial interests exercised powerful influence. An empire could retreat from direct administration without surrendering the companies and financial structures tied to strategic infrastructure.