Q&A ยท 2:10:28-2:11:55

How a Panama Canal attack could delay the Pacific war

A hypothetical attack during a capital ship's passage through the locks could combine damage to the canal with a wreck that obstructed repairs.

Question

Would Japanese destruction of the Panama Canal change the outcome of the Pacific war, and when would it cause the most damage?

Short answer

An attack alongside Pearl Harbor is estimated to add roughly one or two years to the war. Catching a capital ship inside the locks could maximise the disruption, although the eventual outcome is expected to remain the same.

Notes

Destroying the Panama Canal alongside the attack on Pearl Harbor is estimated here to delay the Pacific war by roughly one or two years without reversing its eventual outcome. The most damaging timing would catch a carrier or battleship inside a lock as the water level changed. Damage could then spread beyond the gate initially struck and wreck the ship inside the chamber. Clearing that wreckage would add work before repairs could begin. This is a speculative estimate of disruption to American mobilisation.