Would an early Pacific war make a European war less likely?
Short answerPossibly: a victorious coalition would be militarily experienced and less overstretched, which could alter German and Italian calculations.
NotesThe scenario favours blockade and fleet defeat over an invasion of Japan, potentially freeing forces instead of trapping Britain in a global land war. The active coalition could include Britain, the United States, France, the Netherlands, and the Soviet Union. A Japanese surrender would leave those states with recent operational experience and a demonstrated ability to fight together. Germany and Italy might therefore delay their own moves or even seek status by joining the anti-Japanese coalition. Those reactions remain uncertain, but the strategic conditions behind a September 1939 European war would no longer be the same.