Q&A ยท 1:52:51-1:55:16

If Orkney returned to Norway before World War I

The Orkney counterfactual tests territorial sovereignty against the Royal Navy's need to control Scapa Flow.

Question

What would change if Britain returned Orkney to Norway in 1910?

Short answer

The premise is politically implausible, and wartime strategy changes little because Britain would likely secure Scapa Flow immediately to prevent an enemy from exploiting the anchorage.

Notes

The premise begins with Christian I's pledge of the islands as security for Margaret's dowry when she married James III of Scotland. The unpaid debt led to Orkney's absorption into Scotland in 1472. A hypothetical repayment of the 1468 debt in 1910 is judged politically unlikely to persuade Britain to give the islands back. Even if a transfer occurred, the answer expects Britain to take control of Scapa Flow when World War I began to prevent someone else occupying it. Limited prewar construction there would not remove the anchorage's strategic importance.