Q&A · 1:17:57-1:21:54

Reading Herman Kahn's On Thermonuclear War in context

Kahn's 1960 study raises questions about shelters, hardened targets and the possibility of surviving nuclear war, with assumptions that require historical context.

Question

Have you read Herman Kahn's On Thermonuclear War, and how should it be approached?

Short answer

Yes; it is worth reading as a historically situated discussion starter, not as a definitive solution to nuclear strategy.

Notes

Herman Kahn's 1960 book challenges assumptions about mutually assured destruction and considers whether nuclear war could be controlled or won. Shelters, protected command sites and preserved resources complicate expectations based on air bursts against cities. A counterargument is that thermonuclear weapons can also attack hardened targets, with Pershing offered as an example, although such attacks bring much greater fallout. The publication date matters because new B-52 bombers, limited precision and the warning available during a bomber attack shaped the strategic setting. The recommendation is to test the book's arguments as a contribution to debate rather than adopt it as a complete doctrine. Kahn's work at RAND and subsequent foundation of the Hudson Institute also place it within the development of Cold War strategic studies.